A Broken Knowlwdge System


 When we hear that "experts" have concluded that we must eliminate fossil fuels, that appears extremely compelling and trustworthy. We most certainly need to study the negative side effects of fossil fuels such as increased heat waves, droughts, wildfires, etc.

But we cannot make good policy decisions about these side effects if we don't know the benefits that will be lost when we eliminate those fossil fuels. Benefits such as affordable foods, clothing, shelter, and medical care. What about the uniquely cost-effective property of fossil fuels? What about the billions of people who have no, or few energy sources other than their own human energy? Don't we have a moral obligation? What about the relative negatives of fossil fuel energy? We need fossil fuels to construct all the windmills, and mining for materials to build electric cars and all the equipment used for environment preservation. 

Whether you believe that side effects of fossil fuels are eminent, and caused by human contributions, creating climate change so that we need an alternative soon, or whether you do not believe that human contributions are a major factor, is irrelevant. 

We need to look at both sides and what reality is showing, in say, the last fifty years. In this article I want to look at energy experts, who they are and where does our "knowledge system" fit in all this?

We have scientists in all kinds of fields; environment, weather patterns, nuclear power, biology, water management, medicine, and many more. We only hear from scientists dealing with side effects and the urgency to do away with fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal. How "renewables" such as wind and solar power will replace fossil fuels. 

Before all this scientific research reaches the common man, and women, like you and me, there is a knowledge system that interprets the research and puts it in language understandable to six-grade level. These are the "experts", either scientists or people closely related to them; people who write in The Guardian, or Newsweek, The New York Times, and many more. John Holden, President Obama's top science adviser had a particularly dire prediction. Paul Ehrlich, a close collaborator, in 1986 wrote:

"As University of California physicist John Holden said, it is possible that carbon-dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020." Yet, climate disaster deaths reduced by 98% between the 1920's and the 2000's. 

Our knowledge system is broken. We get to hear only one side, which often does not matchup with reality.


Need of more oil, coal, and natural gas

The current weather patterns through-out the United States seem devastating: fires in California and New Mexico, heat in New York and flooding in southern Florida. Where are our weather patterns headed?

I found an interesting graph in the book: Fossil Future, by Alex Epstein. The graph comes from Scripps Institute of Oceanography referring to World Bank Data. They keep records of disasters and their impact. Disasters such as floods, droughts, storms, and extreme climate related disasters. This graph is about Climate Related Disaster Deaths, between 1920-2000. Since 1920, climate related deaths have decreased by 98% in the world! Let that sink in: 98% decrease in climate related deaths... 

This means that our knowledge system ignores the massive life-or-death benefits of fossil fuels, but it has a track record of being 180 degrees wrong about the supposedly catastrophic side effects of climate danger, which in fact has dramatically decreased; by 98% with related deaths. How is that possible?

We humans have the capacity of building: dams, canals, dikes, increasingly safer and taller buildings, drinking water facilities, hospitals and all the equipment in them. Imagine trying to build a 25 story building with purely solar and wind generated energy. That includes building the trucks, cement plants, manufacturing of steel. Once the building is completed, should we ensure electricity, water, heating, using only solar and wind power? 

Are there other forms of generating power? Yes, there is nuclear power, and maybe other forms are still being developed. Yet there are 3 billion people who have almost no access to energy sources, other than human power. Babies in Gambia die because there are no ultrasound machines or incubators available.

What are the benefits of fossil fuels? Oil, gas, coal

  1. Fossil fuels continue to be the dominant force (80%), and have the ability to provide low-cost, reliable energy in a world where far more energy will be needed going forward, especially with 3 billion  lives having almost no energy.
  2. Low-cost, reliable energy empowering us to improve lives has radically under appreciated benefits, including transforming our environment into one that is un-naturally clean and un-naturally safe from climate danger. The world has continued to become a better place to live. 
  3. While rising CO2 levels came with growing use of low-cost, reliable fossil fuel energy have a warming impact, they are not as catastrophic. Ingenious human beings, empowered by fossil-fueled machines. We have irrigation machines to counter drought, heating and air-conditioning machines that counter harmful temperatures, and so on. 

Are there side effects of the use of fossil fuels? Of course there are. It is irrelevant to me whether you believe the use of fossil fuels should be drastically cut back because the consequences in the near future will be drastic and climate change is caused by human kind, or whether you do not believe that. The fact is that 80% of energy is produced by fossil fuels and 3% is furnished by solar and wind power.  But to get to that 3%, fuel generated power was needed to build that equipment. Electric cars are fine, but they still need fossil fuel powered equipment to build them and we still need fossil fuel powered equipment to generate electricity to operate those cars. 

How come we are so enamoured with the need to replace fossil fuels? Based on what evidence? What does reality show us?

Those are questions to address another time.

Feeling honored

Olda asked us how we handled retirement. He's not quite there yet, but sees some changes coming up at his work, and wondering how that will affect the family's future. Lida asked us how we got to go to the mission field in the Czech Republic at an older age, and how did we accomplish being there for 7 years? She and her husband are looking into going on the mission field themselves, at about the same age as when we went. Pavlina, the mission's administrator, interviewed me on how we got to minister for the Christian football club Ambassadors in Prague and what else did we do when we lived in Pisek?

Olda and his family came to visit us in California about 8 years ago and asked me to organize an RV rental for a trip through the western United States. He picked us up from the Vienna airport this May and we stayed with them for a week in a village close to Brno. Lida was one of the first ladies we came to know in 2002 when we came to Pisek. She is very good in English and picks up another language easily. During those years, we went through ups and downs in life together, common and not so common. It was through her that we connected with Olda for the RV camping trip in the West. Lida was going to Pisek at the end of our week stay, so we got a ride instead of using public transportation, which we are very familiar with, but would have been a challenge with our luggage and at our age. 

After a week in Pisek, we planned to visit Misha and Thomaš, a Czech missionary couple in Poděbrady, a town 30 miles East of Prague where the Ambassadors mission started in 1989. Misha's mother was the translator for the team back then and eventually became a Christian believer. Going to Poděbrady from Pisek is do-able with public transportation, but takes a lot of time. We were to catch a flight from Prague airport to Amsterdam that evening, so time, our age, and with luggage would be a challenge. Olda offered to drive to Pisek, pick us up at the end of the week, and take us to Poděbrady. He arranged for a few business connections in Prague, since he would be there anyway. Tomaš would drive us to the airport, after we had a nice lunch together. 

During these two weeks, it hit me! I had limited activities with Ambassadors Football during those 7 years. I helped with children's practices in a Prague school gym every Friday, assist in the planning and execute football camps every summer, and support annual planning. Not very much in my opinion. I had little to do with the spiritual goals of the mission, which you would think someone went on the mission field for. Aside from the football ministry, we also did two conversational English classes / week in Pisek, through the church as outreach. Contrary to the American assumption, that missionaries go out and see how many believers they can make, it is about making friends and providing support. Support can be financial, but is not limited to that. The local church has to do the reaching out. If the missionary can help with teaching conversational English, that is great. The way we live our lives is much more important for other people to see. And they see it!

The light came on! That is what we have done in those 7 years. Czech people now ask us how we did it; how we live today and what it takes to get there. Nobody asked us about our theology. Pavlina wanted to know what the Ambassadors Football club did in those years and I have many pictures and video clips, but she also wanted to know how we made it to Czech, and why. She will send me a copy when she finishes editing. Doing the mundane jobs does have a purpose, even when we don't see it at that time. 

Are Times a-Changing?

What soil type is your house sitting on? Clay, loam, sand? What does that tell you about the likely location? By a river, inland? You don't know what soil type? Don't feel bad. Most Americans probably don't know anymore. A century ago, and longer, a lot of people lived on the farm and they certainly knew! Beyond our American heritage, think about what the British found coming to America. Going south of Virginia they found marshes, pretty well unknown in England. Those marshes needed to be drained, vegetation cut down, making it usable for farming. That mentality is still deeply ingrained in American society. Maybe not farming, but land should be put to good economical use.

 The deepening of the St. John's River in Jacksonville Florida, will allow bigger vessels to enter. Hopefully an economic boon, but environmentally? Salt water will get deeper into the river, changing the environment. It is not only about whether it is good or bad, but more about: have we adequately considered the consequences? Who will pay for these? Our tax dollar, or the shipping industry? In the same vein, what about the elaborate homes built along the Pacific Ocean by people who can afford it? Should our tax dollars pay for the break-off of a cliff in front of their house?

Hurricanes, earthquakes, and tornadoes are all short-term challenges that have been around for ages. For the last 450 years, the temperature has been very steady, making it possible to build up an economy as we know it today. 

About the year 1000, it shows a similar rise in temperature as we see today. The Medieval Climate Anomaly, also known as the Medieval Warm Period, was a significant climatic event that occurred roughly between the 9th and 14th centuries. This period was characterized by relatively warmer temperatures in various regions around the globe, leading to notable impacts on ecosystems and human societies. Several factors contributed to the warming observed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. One prominent driver was natural climate variability, including fluctuations in solar radiation and volcanic activity. Changes in solar output, such as increased solar irradiance, could have played a role in driving warmer temperatures during this period. Additionally, reduced volcanic activity, which tends to have a cooling effect on the climate by releasing ash and aerosols into the atmosphere, may have contributed to the relative warmth experienced during the Medieval Warm Period. 

The effects of the Medieval Climate Anomaly were diverse and varied across different regions. In Europe, for example, the warmer temperatures led to an extension of the growing season, allowing for increased agricultural productivity in some areas. This period saw the expansion of vineyards into regions that were previously too cool for grape cultivation, indicating the favorable conditions for agriculture during this time.

Conversely, other regions experienced different impacts. For instance, parts of North America saw shifts in precipitation patterns, with some areas becoming drier while others received more rainfall. These changes in moisture availability could have influenced ecosystems and affected the livelihoods of indigenous populations in those areas.  

The warmer climate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly influenced human societies in various ways. In Europe, the agricultural boom resulting from the extended growing season led to increased food production and population growth. This period also coincided with the rise of medieval civilizations and the flourishing of trade networks, contributing to cultural and economic developments.

Moreover, the warmer temperatures likely influenced exploration and migration patterns. The Norse colonization of Greenland and the discovery of Vinland (believed to be part of North America) by the Vikings are examples of how climatic conditions may have facilitated or incentivized exploration during the Medieval Warm Period.

When examining the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the context of modern climate trends, it is essential to note the differences and similarities. While both periods have experienced warming temperatures, the drivers of climate change today, such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, differ significantly from the natural factors that influenced the Medieval Warm Period. Really? Or is this conclusion based on more recently constructed computer simulations? Do we see more impact because the world is more populated and consequences affect more people after a hurricane or tornado? 



A Jump to Today

https://fivecultureslaterposthavencom.posthaven.com/a-jump-to-today

It feels like I'm in Shanghai or Mexico City, with traffic going in all directions. Does anyone know where they are going? My routines look like that: washing dishes, sorting out medicines and how frequently to take them, doctor's appointments of all kinds, cleaning up emails, stuff to read, stuff to file, ... and on it goes. Isn't the purpose of this retirement community to relax, as depicted in the picture below? This is the ground level; 

Turtle Lake at WWJC

It is the proverbial time to make our New Year's resolutions, which most often only last a couple of months. David Allen, one of the time management gurus, wrote this book of Getting Things Done.   He talks about different levels, which sounds pretty theoretical to me, but I found a more understandable way to explain. Each level expands the time frame further out, but that ground level refers to the routine activities we have to do, no matter what ideals we have. Washing dishes may not be our greatest desire, but it has to be done. 

The next level, say 2,000 ft, is a bit calmer, but still overwhelming. It is a list of projects; commitments that take more than one action step. Maybe it is organizing a party for aunt Mary, or putting in a bid for the Acme Brick Co. Most of us have anywhere from 30 to 100 of those. If you fully define that list, it undoubtedly will generate different actions than you currently have identified. I am involved in three committees on campus, and one at teaching English as a second language. Then there are the Memoirs Writers, for which I am trying the solution of writing a blog every week. That means upgrading this Posthaven blog site. The Environment committee involves following at least two websites, and then there are the times of checking out for sound and video presentations as part of the Tech Team. All those require time and trying not to get distracted by other websites or computer-related activities. 

Let's rise to the 5,000 ft. level. Upon accepting a new job, you receive goals and expectations, plus the accountability that comes with it. It does not end there. I gained skills while working in a tomato cannery, but even on a retirement campus, I have opportunities to benefit others, projects to undertake, and actions to clarify. Areas of accountability include being a husband, a job or career to bring home the money to make a living, church or other spiritual responsibility, exercise activities, and others. 


We rise another 4,000 ft to the next level. Over the next 2-3 years, our goals and objectives change. They require different skills and add responsibilities. For me, it goes from tomato variety selections and quality testing to supervising a shift of 400 people in the cannery. As a supervisor, I was also responsible for communication between the corporate engineers 400 miles away and the contractors on-site of new equipment installations in the off-season. 

Reaching the Dutch coast

Where am I going to be 5, 10, 25 years from now? How do dramatic changes affect my plans? Like when Marise, my wife, finds out she has M.S.? How does that affect our dream of going on an overseas mission after retirement? This is a whole different level, like another 4,000 ft higher. New action steps are needed. I find myself as an accounting manager of a one and one half million $$ budget sports mission, consisting of offices in Los Angeles, Charlotte NC, Chicago, a new HQ in Colorado Springs, an office in Bolton, England, and a new project in Prague. Accounting is a whole differrent field than Supervisor in a cannery... but both require attention to detail, and that I could do! Next, we get an assignment to be part of a team going to Pisek, Czech Republic. There the church we attend wants us to teach conversational English to the older generation who had to learn Russian when going to school. What to do for retirement? I am not ready for any retirement campus, right? Maybe not ready, like I was not ready for many things in life!


Now I have reached 15,000 ft. I go up one more level, to 20,000 ft, where I ask: What am I on earth for to accomplish in my life? Do I have the lifestyle I am looking for? It deals with concepts like: purpose, principles, vision, and mission statements. Am I spending enough time with my family, my health, spiritual life? I still have "incompletes" to deal with, projects and actions to take; things that are not completely clear. 

Retired? yes, but as I go through each level, adjustments become obvious. 

Way above the clouds