When we hear that "experts" have concluded that we must eliminate fossil fuels, that appears extremely compelling and trustworthy. We most certainly need to study the negative side effects of fossil fuels such as increased heat waves, droughts, wildfires, etc.

But we cannot make good policy decisions about these side effects if we don't know the benefits that will be lost when we eliminate those fossil fuels. Benefits such as affordable foods, clothing, shelter, and medical care. What about the uniquely cost-effective property of fossil fuels? What about the billions of people who have no, or few energy sources other than their own human energy? Don't we have a moral obligation? What about the relative negatives of fossil fuel energy? We need fossil fuels to construct all the windmills, and mining for materials to build electric cars and all the equipment used for environment preservation. 

Whether you believe that side effects of fossil fuels are eminent, and caused by human contributions, creating climate change so that we need an alternative soon, or whether you do not believe that human contributions are a major factor, is irrelevant. 

We need to look at both sides and what reality is showing, in say, the last fifty years. In this article I want to look at energy experts, who they are and where does our "knowledge system" fit in all this?

We have scientists in all kinds of fields; environment, weather patterns, nuclear power, biology, water management, medicine, and many more. We only hear from scientists dealing with side effects and the urgency to do away with fossil fuels like oil, gas, and coal. How "renewables" such as wind and solar power will replace fossil fuels. 

Before all this scientific research reaches the common man, and women, like you and me, there is a knowledge system that interprets the research and puts it in language understandable to six-grade level. These are the "experts", either scientists or people closely related to them; people who write in The Guardian, or Newsweek, The New York Times, and many more. John Holden, President Obama's top science adviser had a particularly dire prediction. Paul Ehrlich, a close collaborator, in 1986 wrote:

"As University of California physicist John Holden said, it is possible that carbon-dioxide climate-induced famines could kill as many as a billion people before the year 2020." Yet, climate disaster deaths reduced by 98% between the 1920's and the 2000's. 

Our knowledge system is broken. We get to hear only one side, which often does not matchup with reality.

The current weather patterns through-out the United States seem devastating: fires in California and New Mexico, heat in New York and flooding in southern Florida. Where are our weather patterns headed?

I found an interesting graph in the book: Fossil Future, by Alex Epstein. The graph comes from Scripps Institute of Oceanography referring to World Bank Data. They keep records of disasters and their impact. Disasters such as floods, droughts, storms, and extreme climate related disasters. This graph is about Climate Related Disaster Deaths, between 1920-2000. Since 1920, climate related deaths have decreased by 98% in the world! Let that sink in: 98% decrease in climate related deaths... 

This means that our knowledge system ignores the massive life-or-death benefits of fossil fuels, but it has a track record of being 180 degrees wrong about the supposedly catastrophic side effects of climate danger, which in fact has dramatically decreased; by 98% with related deaths. How is that possible?

We humans have the capacity of building: dams, canals, dikes, increasingly safer and taller buildings, drinking water facilities, hospitals and all the equipment in them. Imagine trying to build a 25 story building with purely solar and wind generated energy. That includes building the trucks, cement plants, manufacturing of steel. Once the building is completed, should we ensure electricity, water, heating, using only solar and wind power? 

Are there other forms of generating power? Yes, there is nuclear power, and maybe other forms are still being developed. Yet there are 3 billion people who have almost no access to energy sources, other than human power. Babies in Gambia die because there are no ultrasound machines or incubators available.

What are the benefits of fossil fuels? Oil, gas, coal

1. Fossil fuels continue to be the dominant force (80%), and have the ability to provide low-cost, reliable energy in a world where far more energy will be needed going forward, especially with 3 billion  lives having almost no energy.
2. Low-cost, reliable energy empowering us to improve lives has radically under appreciated benefits, including transforming our environment into one that is un-naturally clean and un-naturally safe from climate danger. The world has continued to become a better place to live. 
3. While rising CO2 levels came with growing use of low-cost, reliable fossil fuel energy have a warming impact, they are not as catastrophic. Ingenious human beings, empowered by fossil-fueled machines. We have irrigation machines to counter drought, heating and air-conditioning machines that counter harmful temperatures, and so on. 

Are there side effects of the use of fossil fuels? Of course there are. It is irrelevant to me whether you believe the use of fossil fuels should be drastically cut back because the consequences in the near future will be drastic and climate change is caused by human kind, or whether you do not believe that. The fact is that 80% of energy is produced by fossil fuels and 3% is furnished by solar and wind power.  But to get to that 3%, fuel generated power was needed to build that equipment. Electric cars are fine, but they still need fossil fuel powered equipment to build them and we still need fossil fuel powered equipment to generate electricity to operate those cars. 

How come we are so enamoured with the need to replace fossil fuels? Based on what evidence? What does reality show us?

Those are questions to address another time.

Olda asked us how we handled retirement. He's not quite there yet, but sees some changes coming up at his work, and wondering how that will affect the family's future. Lida asked us how we got to go to the mission field in the Czech Republic at an older age, and how did we accomplish being there for 7 years? She and her husband are looking into going on the mission field themselves, at about the same age as when we went. Pavlina, the mission's administrator, interviewed me on how we got to minister for the Christian football club Ambassadors in Prague and what else did we do when we lived in Pisek?

Olda and his family came to visit us in California about 8 years ago and asked me to organize an RV rental for a trip through the western United States. He picked us up from the Vienna airport this May and we stayed with them for a week in a village close to Brno. Lida was one of the first ladies we came to know in 2002 when we came to Pisek. She is very good in English and picks up another language easily. During those years, we went through ups and downs in life together, common and not so common. It was through her that we connected with Olda for the RV camping trip in the West. Lida was going to Pisek at the end of our week stay, so we got a ride instead of using public transportation, which we are very familiar with, but would have been a challenge with our luggage and at our age. 

After a week in Pisek, we planned to visit Misha and Thomaš, a Czech missionary couple in Poděbrady, a town 30 miles East of Prague where the Ambassadors mission started in 1989. Misha's mother was the translator for the team back then and eventually became a Christian believer. Going to Poděbrady from Pisek is do-able with public transportation, but takes a lot of time. We were to catch a flight from Prague airport to Amsterdam that evening, so time, our age, and with luggage would be a challenge. Olda offered to drive to Pisek, pick us up at the end of the week, and take us to Poděbrady. He arranged for a few business connections in Prague, since he would be there anyway. Tomaš would drive us to the airport, after we had a nice lunch together. 

During these two weeks, it hit me! I had limited activities with Ambassadors Football during those 7 years. I helped with children's practices in a Prague school gym every Friday, assist in the planning and execute football camps every summer, and support annual planning. Not very much in my opinion. I had little to do with the spiritual goals of the mission, which you would think someone went on the mission field for. Aside from the football ministry, we also did two conversational English classes / week in Pisek, through the church as outreach. Contrary to the American assumption, that missionaries go out and see how many believers they can make, it is about making friends and providing support. Support can be financial, but is not limited to that. The local church has to do the reaching out. If the missionary can help with teaching conversational English, that is great. The way we live our lives is much more important for other people to see. And they see it!

The light came on! That is what we have done in those 7 years. Czech people now ask us how we did it; how we live today and what it takes to get there. Nobody asked us about our theology. Pavlina wanted to know what the Ambassadors Football club did in those years and I have many pictures and video clips, but she also wanted to know how we made it to Czech, and why. She will send me a copy when she finishes editing. Doing the mundane jobs does have a purpose, even when we don't see it at that time. 

What soil type is your house sitting on? Clay, loam, sand? What does that tell you about the likely location? By a river, inland? You don't know what soil type? Don't feel bad. Most Americans probably don't know anymore. A century ago, and longer, a lot of people lived on the farm and they certainly knew! Beyond our American heritage, think about what the British found coming to America. Going south of Virginia they found marshes, pretty well unknown in England. Those marshes needed to be drained, vegetation cut down, making it usable for farming. That mentality is still deeply ingrained in American society. Maybe not farming, but land should be put to good economical use.

 The deepening of the St. John's River in Jacksonville Florida, will allow bigger vessels to enter. Hopefully an economic boon, but environmentally? Salt water will get deeper into the river, changing the environment. It is not only about whether it is good or bad, but more about: have we adequately considered the consequences? Who will pay for these? Our tax dollar, or the shipping industry? In the same vein, what about the elaborate homes built along the Pacific Ocean by people who can afford it? Should our tax dollars pay for the break-off of a cliff in front of their house?

Hurricanes, earthquakes, and tornadoes are all short-term challenges that have been around for ages. For the last 450 years, the temperature has been very steady, making it possible to build up an economy as we know it today. 

About the year 1000, it shows a similar rise in temperature as we see today. The Medieval Climate Anomaly, also known as the Medieval Warm Period, was a significant climatic event that occurred roughly between the 9th and 14th centuries. This period was characterized by relatively warmer temperatures in various regions around the globe, leading to notable impacts on ecosystems and human societies. Several factors contributed to the warming observed during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. One prominent driver was natural climate variability, including fluctuations in solar radiation and volcanic activity. Changes in solar output, such as increased solar irradiance, could have played a role in driving warmer temperatures during this period. Additionally, reduced volcanic activity, which tends to have a cooling effect on the climate by releasing ash and aerosols into the atmosphere, may have contributed to the relative warmth experienced during the Medieval Warm Period. 

The effects of the Medieval Climate Anomaly were diverse and varied across different regions. In Europe, for example, the warmer temperatures led to an extension of the growing season, allowing for increased agricultural productivity in some areas. This period saw the expansion of vineyards into regions that were previously too cool for grape cultivation, indicating the favorable conditions for agriculture during this time.

Conversely, other regions experienced different impacts. For instance, parts of North America saw shifts in precipitation patterns, with some areas becoming drier while others received more rainfall. These changes in moisture availability could have influenced ecosystems and affected the livelihoods of indigenous populations in those areas.  

The warmer climate during the Medieval Climate Anomaly influenced human societies in various ways. In Europe, the agricultural boom resulting from the extended growing season led to increased food production and population growth. This period also coincided with the rise of medieval civilizations and the flourishing of trade networks, contributing to cultural and economic developments.

Moreover, the warmer temperatures likely influenced exploration and migration patterns. The Norse colonization of Greenland and the discovery of Vinland (believed to be part of North America) by the Vikings are examples of how climatic conditions may have facilitated or incentivized exploration during the Medieval Warm Period.

When examining the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the context of modern climate trends, it is essential to note the differences and similarities. While both periods have experienced warming temperatures, the drivers of climate change today, such as anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, differ significantly from the natural factors that influenced the Medieval Warm Period. Really? Or is this conclusion based on more recently constructed computer simulations? Do we see more impact because the world is more populated and consequences affect more people after a hurricane or tornado? 

https://fivecultureslaterposthavencom.posthaven.com/a-jump-to-today

Way above the clouds

lt was 1954. Opa and Oma came to visit us in Caracas, Venezuela, from the Netherlands. We went on a vacation trip to the Andes mountains with oma. Opa, a visiting professor from the University of Utrecht, went to the Veterinary University in Maracai. His field focussed on big farm animals; mostly cows and horses. I still remember our trip to the Andes, where we stayed just east of the big Lago de Maracaibo, where they drill for oil. Venezuela lacked sufficient refinery capacity, so a significant amount was sent to refineries on the Dutch West Indies islands of Aruba and Curaçao. In the Andes, we stayed in a cottage, much like in the Swiss Alps. We went on horses into the valley on a steep trail one day. My face showed tense in an old photograph! The trip was very impressive, driving southward and back east through the llanos to Caracas. 

My opa had an enormous influence on my career choice of agriculture and animal husbandry. I remember little of visiting the university, but he always went on his bicycle, even after he purchased their first car when he was in his late fifties. The car was for trips and convenience as needed. The university had their own vehicles for business trips. When we came on furlough from Surabaya, or later, Caracas, we always stayed at opa and oma's on the Oudwijkerlaan 37 in Utrecht. I inherited my mother's old room in the attic. Back then, every bedroom had a sink that could freeze over in winter during extended periods of frost. Looking out the window, I spotted men carrying bags of coal and storing them in a brick bin. To reach the maintenance shack in the backyard, they covered the hallway, kitchen, and created a path through the house from the front. The brick bin opened along the bottom to fill the coal shuttle and take it to the cellar under the kitchen where the coal heater was. 

                                                          Opa (on the left) and colleagues inspecting a milk cow

Inseminating cows involved leading the steer to the pasture until after WW II. The university developed a method for artificial insemination. By doing this, there was no need to transport the steer back and forth. Additionally, when there were multiple cows in the pasture, the farmer could choose the exact cow that required insemination from a specific steer. They kept accurate records so they could identify the offspring later. In short: A.I. artificial insemination. Today, they still perform artificial insemination in that manner, but the current generation consumes milk from a plastic or carton container. Unless they are in the livestock business, they have no idea what A.I. means. 

Moving forward 60 years and A.I. gets a different meaning. The focus shifted from creating artificial life to intelligence. Artificial intelligence is the science of making machines that can think like humans. It has the ability to perform "smart" actions. AI aims to perform tasks like pattern recognition, decision-making, and human-like judgment. (Sep 16, 2021 Wikipedia) 

Although experts list AI's ability to free people from repetitive and mundane tasks as a positive, some believe this benefit comes with a downside: a loss of skills in people. (Jun 16, 2023 Wikipedia) 

Alan Turing published his work “Computer Machinery and Intelligence” which became The Turing Test, which experts used to measure computer intelligence. Someone coined the term "artificial intelligence" and it became popular. 

(Mar 24, 2023 Wikipedia)

So, there you have it! Yet, people are afraid of it. It is a fast-growing technology. Like everything else, people can use it for good and bad purposes.

Cheetahs, how  70 mph chasing can run prey while many?

1. Immerse Yourself In New Experiences. ...
2. Learn Something New. ...
3. Ask More Questions. ...

• Curious. Creative people enjoy learning new things, so their free time may include reading books or watching videos about topics they find interesting. ...
• Playful. ...
• Open-minded. ...
• Flexible. ...
• Sensitive. ...
• Independent. ...
• Risk-taking. ...
• Intuitive.

Logic uses reasoning and analytical abilities. It seeks to identify the cause and effect. Creativity involves elements of innovation, emotion, and chance. It seeks to discover new solutions.

There is a difference in brain structure between artists and non-artists, which accounts for the difference in ability. Artists view the world differently, focusing on the whole visual field rather than individual objects. This allows them to see shadows and contours that non-artists would miss.

That is Wikipedia so far, differentiating between creative and logic. Maybe you are more comfortable with logic than creativity, but that does not mean you can use it as an excuse. I am co-teaching in a beginners TESOL class. Teaching English to Speakers of Other Languages. Learning another language is not the same as a math class; a chemistry or history class. In those classes you learn something new; how to apply calculus, or learn the table of elements. In language study you learn to say something you already know, in a different way. Grammar? Yes, but that is just part of it. In our native tongue, we all express ourself different, depending on our upbringing, the environment we live in - our culture - and how we relate to others. 

I lived in five different cultures; really six, because California and Florida are not the same even though they speak (more or less...) the same language. California is to the far left and Florida is to the far right... geographically. By "lived in", I mean at least five years in each. Not having spoken Spanish for ten years, I picked it up again in California with our sanitation foreman at the tomato cannery. He noticed I spoke more of Castillano, rather than the more common Spanglish spoken in California. He came from southern Mexico where Castillano is more prevalent as it is in Venezuela. 

Going back to our first phrase: Cheetahs, how 70 mph chasing can run prey while many? To make this more understandable, we need some constraints, best explained in the following table:                 

 "From the text, write a comment," is the teacher's instruction. What text? Where am I supposed to write the comment? I try to get an answer, but get ignored, while the rest of the class seems to get it. I wake up in panic. What was the teacher's instruction? Am I getting dementia? 

Just read an article the other day about Alzheimers, and how to delay its development. Maybe I need to read it again. How come everybody else in the class seems to get it? Maybe I am not smart enough. Why does the teacher ignore me? Can't get rid of the thought. It's like the police officer, who clocked a driver speeding 84 mph in a 45 mph zone and prepares to chase him and give him a ticket. But his cruiser won't start. Fining the speeder is an un-enforceable rule, just as understanding the teacher's assignment in my dream. C.S. Lewis states we are always trying to be somewhere we are not, trying to be inside the inner ring. Instead, do what you love to do and create your own inner ring. 

 I get out of bed to work on a computer project for a while. I can't find the project! More frustration. 

In looking for my project, I find a podcast about "not giving up". Stop listening to that voice of not understanding the teacher; that is only a feeling left over from a dream, but it is not necessarily true. Look for the facts. Every prudent man acts out of knowledge, but a fool exposes his folly. He who answers before listening - that is his folly and his shame. 

I follow "Storyworthy" by Matthew Dicks. The purpose of this course is to help you find stories. Even if you never want to tell a story to another person in the world, you should be actively, aggressively, relentlessly looking for stories in your life to tell yourself. You are the most important audience you will ever have for your stories. And as you start to collect stories in the ways that I'm going to teach you over the course of the next several lessons, you're going to discover that you lead a life that you never understood before. You'll discover that your life is filled with stories, and the more stories you start to see, collect, and hold on to, the better you'll feel about your life. 

Looking for facts requires knowing how to Google them, or looking them up in my Brain app. Not exactly do-able if you have dementia. We all have scary dreams from time to time. What do we do with them?  

Matthew Dicks continues with: We're here to collect stories. We're here to find them. hold on to them, and speak them, maybe to other people, but first to ourselves. But my promise to you is this. At the end of this course, you will have many strategies to find new stories in your life.

The dream of boaters! Take out a year to do this route. A year? Yes, after all, you don't want to be in New York or on the Great Lakes in the winter!

What Exactly is the Great Loop?

Mrs Tierney assigned the history paper on the subject they have been studying: George Washington. 

The Rotary Foundation has six main categories to fund projects all over the world. One of them is Water and Sanitation. A lot of deals with drilling wells. Wells have been drilled all over Africa, for example, for many years, by various non-profit organizations, the United Nations, etc. Sadly, many of those are now overgrown, rusty and not working anymore. After several years the local population could not afford parts, neither did they have the engineering capacity to keep them running, long after the organization that started the project, was gone. Over the past 4-5 years, Rotary has implemented a requirement, that the project has to be sustainable. In other words, the means to keep the project running, once the project is complete and the Rotarians have gone home. There are a multitude of these projects going on. Which one do you choose to support? 

In her novel, A Long Walk To Water, Linda Sue Park explains drilling a well is only the beginning! She describes, what is based on a true story, in the area of Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenia. There is a lot of desert. People move toward the wetter areas during the rainy season and return to wherever a little water remains, the rest of the year. Typically, the girls fetch water every day, which takes half a day traveling both ways. It is not the best water either; muddy and often contaminated. Peoples from two different tribes, the Nuer and the Dinka fight over water in the only lake remaining during the drought. Fights happen, people die. On top, a civil war rages through the South of Sudan, trying to keep their own religions instead of being forced by government troops from the North to accept the Muslim religion. One day, two visitors came to Nya's village. They spoke with the village counsel, something about water. 

They brought in all kinds of equipment, Nya had never seen. After weeks of work and through unexpected challenges, water came out of a pump, if you swung the handle up and down.

 "A miracle," said her uncle."I used to sit here all the time, and never knew I was sitting on top of water!" 

Once the strangers were gone, the villagers were building something, next to the well.

"What is that?" Nya asked her uncle.

"A school for boys AND girls! Now that we have water here, the girls do not have to travel half a day anymore." The project resulted in meeting the next important area of Rotary: Basic Education and Literacy. 

Next came a clinic, so the villagers did not have to travel a full day to the nearest one. This satisfied the area of Disease Prevention And Treatment, and over time resulted in Maternal And Child Health. 

Now that the villagers did not have to spend all their time getting water, having to boil it, and manage water storage, they could spend time on other projects, resulting in compliance with the next area: Economic And Community Development. 

"Remember those two visitors who came to talk to our elders?"

"Yea," Nya replied.

"Did you see the scar on the arm of the assistant?"

"Yes, that was from our tribe, the Nuer."

"And what about the leader?"

"He did not have any marks, so we do not know from which tribe he was." You will have to read the book, to find that answer. but it resulted in covering the last important area: Peace and Conflict Prevention / Resolution. 

All of a sudden I get it! Water and Sanitation form the basics, but the consequences are far bigger and include all six important areas of projects funded by the Rotary Foundation! 

Where is this? What kind of factory is it? We called it just "the plant", in short, and all of us would know what we were talking about. Since 1916, when it was established by Anthony R. Gangi Sr., in San Jose, it went under one name, until September 1, 1993 when it cut operations and later was sold to Del Monte Corporation. The name of the street, that used to run through the middle, before the expansion is: Matmor Rd., which to this day extends South of the plant. A very strange name, I think. The plant dramatically expanded during the 1970's and '80s, to the size you see in the picture above. During those years, tomato varieties were developed for mechanical harvesting, with tons / acre increasing dramatically. Harvesters were designed and built. Because of their firmness, canning tomatoes can be hauled in 6x6x4 bins, instead of the crates used in the hand-pick days. 

Originally the plant only operated during the summer season for 100 days, but later added re-manufactured sauces, like Sweet and Sour sauce, Italian sauce, Taco Sauce, and many more, outside of the processing season. The 300 gallon boxes of 32% paste were re-opened and made into these sauces. The plant handled up to 6,000 tons / day during those 100 days of operation and the whole town smelled it and heard the hissing sound of the steam, coming from the evaporators. Why all those warehouses? Operating only 100 days a year, customers do not all have the warehouse capacity to store tomato products for the rest of the year. You cannot see it in the picture, but behind the warehouses runs a railroad track, where railcars are loaded, throughout the year.

Going back to the first plant established by Gangi in San Jose, it soon expanded to Woodland and Riverbank because the plant in San Jose became surrounded by city blocks so could not expand anymore. 

There it is, the first plant, with a picture of the plant manager, always with a grin on his face! The plant was blocked in by city streets, so to get to the office, you had to cross a busy street, and behind the office a freeway emerged. I am telling this, because the plant is long gone; replaced by apartment buildings. 

Do you remember the advertisement?

All that is left of Contadina today, is an office in San Fransisco, which purchased the name and has its products made by other canneries, just like Contadina used to pack tomatoes, and tomato paste for Safeway, and other stores. Oh, ... the street name Matmor Rd? It is a contraction of the names Matalone and Morici. Morici was the wholesale grocer who bought out Contadina in 1933, and sold it to Carnation Company in 1967. Jimmy Matalone was the sales manager.

The Woodland plant had a softball team in the city league. The city had a nice description of all participants, including Contadina:

A Drop in the Bucket, a lot of drops! Water is used to convey tomatoes from the truck into the plant, water is used to create steam for the evaporators which condensed tomato juice into tomato paste; from about 5% solids to 24%: thick paste, you buy in the grocery store. The waste water takes out the residue which is pumped up to a tower where the solids are separated from the water, collected in a hopper from where trucks haul it off to the fields as fertilizer. The water goes to the city water treatment facility for further treatment before it can be returned to the Sacramento River.

 You can find more on: www.fivecultureslater.org

Daniel Levin wrote a book about happiness at old age. He was wondering why some old people lived like they were 35 years old, all vibrant, and others look ten years older than they really are, like a corpse. Why is that? 

Hurricane Katrina devastation - August 29, 2005

Roland strolled back to Napoleon House. He liked that bar. It got its name from Nicholas Girod, mayor of New Orleans from 1812-1815, who made his home available to Napoleon should he need a place to escape. The name stuck to this day. As Roland entered some guys recognized him and waved him on. Surprised he walked over. “You were here a few nights ago,” one of the guys said. 

“Yes, I was,” Roland replied, “how did you recognize me?” 

“You are not one of the locals here. Where are you from?”  Roland joined them as another guy pulled up a chair. 

“I’m from the Netherlands, on my way to visit my brother in California. I want to see how Katrina affected New Orleans and how it is now, five years later.”

“Hmm, the Netherlands hey, you have your own flooding problems there, don’t you? I am referring to the 1953 flood.”

“Wow, good memory! You know your history well.”

“I am Joe, by the way, that is Tom, Mark, and John.” 

“Nice to know you, I am Roland.”

Roland had traveled the area, observing the dikes, dams, and water management projects in the area. He noticed that a lot of the damage could have been prevented, and a bit of his Dutch pride about how water management is handled different in Holland, kicked in. He wondered why a lot of houses were built in marginally protected areas of the delta. He wondered if technology about water management was more advanced in Holland. He became more interested in the “why’s” of flooding, because he realized that American and Dutch technologically about water management were not that different. Engineers in both countries have a good idea of the conditions and risks that exist at any time. Didn’t they manage to not have such a high density populated and expensive businesses, in flood prone areas?

“Yeah, Katrina was a disaster,” Tom chimed in, “not something we are very proud of, the way it happened and how we responded.” Tom went on to explain how hurricanes are pretty common, but how the New Orleans city fathers cut corners when it comes to controlling disasters, which are inevitable. The levees are not very strong, just consisting of sand. The population assumes those levees will hold, and water flowing over them is limited and only will happen for a few hours at the peak of the hurricane, flooding some places, but those are manageable.  Height of the levees does not matter when they fail without water rising to their tops - like what happened in 2005. Floodplain mapping in the New Orleans area historically has been based on an assumption that the area was protected by the USACE-certified (US Corps of Engineers) levee system, which was developed over several decades beginning in the 1920’s. This assumption led to floodplain regulations that allowed building construction to occur at or below sea level with no accommodations made for the possibility of river- or coastal flooding. 

Flooding in most places within the river / flood wall protected area in and around New Orleans was due to breaches in levees and canals. Pump systems that would normally have removed floodwaters were non-operational due to inundation or from a loss of primary and backup power. In Metairie, flooding was caused by high water from Lake Pontchartrain surcharging the drainage system with pumps off. Local officials decided to evacuate pump personnel on August 28, before the storm hit, according to The Times Picayune, and first-hand accounts given by the New Orleans Flood Team.   

Early in the morning on August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast of the United States. When the storm made landfall, it had a Category 3 rating on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale–it brought sustained winds of 100–140 miles per hour–and stretched some 400 miles across. The storm itself did a great deal of damage, but its aftermath was catastrophic. Levee breaches led to massive flooding, and many people charged that the federal government was slow to meet the needs of the people affected by the storm. Hundreds of thousands of people in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama were displaced from their homes, and experts estimate that Katrina caused more than $100 billion in damage. What those many people failed to realize, is that their own laid-back attitude, and that of their city fathers, about hurricanes contributed to the situation. They had seen so many hurricanes that Katrina also would pass. 

New Orleans was at particular risk. Though about half the city actually lies above sea level, its average elevation is about six feet below sea level–and it is completely surrounded by water. Over the course of the 20th century, the Army Corps of Engineers had built a system of levees and seawalls to keep the city from flooding. The levees along the Mississippi River were strong and sturdy, but the ones built to hold back Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Borgne and the waterlogged swamps and marshes to the city’s east and west were much less reliable. Even before the storm, officials worried that those levees, jerry-built atop sandy, porous, erodible soil, might not withstand a massive storm surge. Neighborhoods that sat below sea level, many of which housed the city’s poorest and most vulnerable people, were at great risk of flooding.  (from: HISTORY article, "New Orleans after 10 years.")

“So you have levees instead of dikes?” Roland asked. 

“Well, yea, so what is the difference?” Mark replied. 

“Levees are built where the water level is about the same as the adjoining land, but six feet below sea level? That would require a dike, which is much firmer, has a wider base and is constructed of various materials; not just sand,” Roland explained. 

“Are you a water engineer, or something?”

“Yes, I am a water engineer calculating dam constructions. I did that for the last section of the Delta Works in Holland after the 1953 flood, and for potassium extraction ponds along the Dead Sea in Israel.” 

Silence for a few moments, as they were impressed, then Mark continued: “So, why are the most expensive industries and heaviest population increases concentrated in the lowest part of the Netherlands?”  To that, Roland did not have an immediate answer… 

In 1997 the Dutch designed a policy called: Ruimte voor de Rivier, in English: Room for the River. The old policy and way of thinking had changed. The 1953 flood re-emphasized the old idea: we should capture all the land possible from the water, and re-inforce dikes where necessary, as global warming makes its entry and the consistent rising of the sea level mandates making the dikes higher and higher. When the Noord-Oost polder was laid dry in 1943, the land adjacent to the new polder was drying out, because the polder was lower so drew out the water from under the farms on the old land. The adjacent polders laid dry in 1956 and 1960 were separated from the old land, with a slice of water of the IJssel Meer so the groundwater would not be extracted. These bodies of water are now recreation areas. Not only the water engineers, but also the politicians and population became educated about water management. Building new polders automatically, was not the answer. The last polder, the Markerwaard was never pumped dry. It still forms part of the IJssel Meer with two dikes running through it. The existing rivers were restructured. Their old river beds were shaped so that the water would twist and turn through the landscape again, instead of having straight canals with high dikes and businesses right along those dikes. Most rivers have two dikes in case the first one breaks. What were the lessons? First of all, letting the river meander slows down the speed of the water allowing water to seep back into the ground. Second, less water would end up in the ocean and become salt water again. Break through the first dike so in winter water can have a place to go. Make it a pasture in the Spring and Summer. 

The story goes that the solid concrete in the canalized rivers of Los Angeles should be removed so water can seep back into the ground, instead of all that water going out to sea. That is also the main reason why the two tunnels Governor Brown wants to build to provide Southern California with more water is a flawed concept. Even if there was enough water to redirect, it is a basic error. Slow down the speed of the water from the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers so more water can permeate the soil again. The Indians had it right: go to the water, don’t redirect water to us. The river never formed a border, but always ran through the middle. Redirecting water looks good in the short-term, but is paid for later. 

The TVA (Tennessee Valley Authority) became the model for the Missouri Valley Authority and the Columbia River Authority. When the Kentucky Dam was built (as part of the TVA) it flooded 300,000 acres of rich farm land which had produced $21,000,000 / yr. TVA boasts that this dam produces $3,000,000 worth of hydro power or 1/7 as much. TVA shows an expense of $2,000,000 on its books for operating navigation facilities, but it seems to be purely a bookkeeping item, because the actual work was done by the Army Engineers. For the fiscal year that cost was $433,648,000 paid from army (= public treasury) funds. The actual sum in navigation facilities was $149,116,375. This investment was made possible by the Treasury Department. TVA pays no interest over that. The taxpayers pay that. Taxpayers also subsidized $6,855,997 of the fiscal year 1946 for shipping for a total of 256,465,000 ton/miles. This figures out to be 2.65 cents/ton-mile, which is about 3x as much what it would have cost by rail. TVA built enormous steam plants to subsidize the more costly hydropower. Those steam plants cost ¾ of a billion $$. That cheap electricity can help people in the immediate region but will not help the 40,000,000 people that helped pay for it.                                                           

A riparian landscape is an area with relatively high groundwater levels. It is where trees grow. It is where water ponds. In a riparian area trees contribute CO2, CH4, N and P, adding nutrients that lead to aquatic productivity, excessive growth of plants which may reduce water quality. Eventually new riparian areas develop along the new shorelines. Additional water flowing will bring down sediments to replenish the soil. So we build a dam to collect water for agricultural, industrial, and cities needs. The reservoirs entrap the sediment going downstream, which in turn would replenish the soils for farming. Species will die off, not getting the necessary ingredients. Riparian native species become extinct. Imported species, for whatever reason, take over and can withstand the new conditions better than the native ones. 

Another term to know is watershed. That word has kind of a dual meaning. In the original British term it means a ridge separating one watershed from another. Water flows differently in two adjoining watersheds. It is also explained as an area drained by a river, which includes an area larger than a riparian landscape. Drastic human interference will upset the balance. It may still be a healthy watershed, but deteriorating a riparian area, such as a dam construction. In general, it is least likely to have healthy riparian areas in poor watersheds. That can be temporarily restored somewhat by the exclusion of livestock grazing. 

In Pisek, Czech Republic is an old but still operating water mill, producing energy for the street lighting.  František Križík, a contemporary of Edison also was searching for the electric light bulb, but Edison beat him to it.  František designed the first electric generator in the town of Pisek, about 100 km south of Prague. It now is also has a museum. A six ft. dam was built across the Otava river in Pisek and water re-directed through the water wheels furnishing power for the generator. Later, a second station was built half a mile downstream. There were many of these generators installed in towns throughout South-West Czech. Rivers come down from the Šumava mountains, with the Vltava River going through Prague, called the Moldau as it goes through Germany to the North, being the biggest one. These local generators barely affected the watersheds of the rivers, yet provide energy. 

So, the Dutch and many other countries, including the USA, have come to the conclusion that re-directing water damages the environment. What now, and how do we educate the general population?

"They’re a family but they won’t go to dinner together? No. Two women sitting together and a man? No, that’s not it either. It’s an ingenious system of names, arranged alphabetically depicting a sequence of hurricanes coming through the Caribbean." Ben was trying to follow Tim’s logic.

“Ok,” Tim said, “Each year hurricanes coming from the Atlantic, and frequently move into the Caribbean, are named alphabetically. So when we are at Irma, we know that one has been preceded by 8 hurricanes that year.”

“What’s with the male and female names?” Ben asked.

“ The male ones are stronger, but I don’t know by how much.”

Katrina was the hurricane in 2005, which damaged New Orleans.

Harvey created havoc in Houston and Irma in Florida; both in 2017, following right after each other. It is not just the strength of the wind, but also the potential water damage. In the case of Katrina and Irma, it was the ocean water that was pushed into the land. Harvey came with an extreme amount of rain over Houston.

“If there are so many hurricanes in a year, you can expect a lot of damage, right?” Ben asked.

“You would think so, but many die down before reaching land, or peter out. Just because you know where all the back roads are, doesn’t mean it is safer in one spot than another. Hurricanes will change direction as they move over land. Like Irma, expected to pass right over Miami, moved a bit West-ward.”   

All of them have one thing in common: people build houses and companies where they have no business doing so. Those places are just tragedy waiting to happen. Unfortunately, hurricanes don’t come over the same areas frequently enough so people forget. Katrina was seen as just another hurricane in which the New Orleaners would have plenty of time to act. This one might just be a bit worse, and it was! Harvey brought so much water, which Houston could not handle, because everything was concrete. Building regulations were not adhered to, or inspectors looked the other way because of the boon that construction created, so water could not go anywhere. And Irma? Well, Florida could not really do much about it, being so close to sea level.

As aptly titled: “Cadillac Desert”, Norris Hundley contends that in the long run, California is going to run out of water. His book came out in the late 1980’s. California went through a severe drought from 2009-2016. The seven year period was pretty standard, but the severity pretty extreme. What made it more so, was the greater demand on water in that period. Groundwater is depleted at an excessive rate, causing the Central Valley to sink from the crumbling of cavities where once water was stored. California has an abundance of groundwater, relative to its surface water capacity, but the consistent depletion, and draining of the Central Valley wetlands, changed the landscape, dramatically reduced the salmon population and other wild-life species. Theo asked the Water Commissioner once: 

“How long does it take water to percolate into the ground, get “cleaned” through the layers, and become accessible for pumping up?”  

“Twenty years,” the commissioner replied. 

“So the wet winter of 2016-17 is merely a drop in the bucket?” Theo asked.

“That is right! It will be enough for the next few years, but does not answer the question about the long-term effect. California, through Governor Brown, is trying to manage groundwater, as are riparian rights, but it will take years before those laws take effect. Meanwhile, groundwater will be pumped up at an excellerating rate, pushing the replenishing date out twenty years by each year before the laws take effect!”   

 To give it some perspective: 1,000 acre/ft of water can quench the thirst and keep 16,000 jobs in the high tech sector, vs. 8 jobs in the agricultural sector. This can be countered by the fact that California has an ideal climate for agriculture. Its soils are ideal as well, but deteriorating in places like the Central Valley due to salination as a result of pumping up water, using it, and contaminating it with fertilizer salts before the remainder settles in the ground again.  Another factor are Reno and Las Vegas, which provide 95% of Nevada’s economy, but use 10% of its water. Most water is used to grow alfalfa..!  "Nevada has no business growing alfalfa," Ben concluded.

“So,” Theo surmised: “For better water management, should cattle be raised in the East and Mid-West, and ship beef out to California? California is already shipping out water to China in the form of almonds!” 

Theo and Ben were discussing the water issues for California. They figured that in the short-run, nobody in California is going to worry about water shortages. The drought, still existing in the Los Angeles area, is decreasing in size as the rains continue to come. “For California we should be talking about short-term and long-term drought,” Ben surmised. Theo could not argue with that. The short-term drought is over for 2017 through 2018. In the middle of February (2017) everybody is still concerned about levees, dams, roads flooding out, land-slides, leaks, etc. After the winter, sometime in April, when the state will take inventory, should we look at the long-term drought, which will never end for California? California is still driving the water guzzling Cadillac. It is time to look for a more efficient operating vehicle. Maybe it is time to look for the ideal operating water system. Here are some rules: 

1. It should not reduce natural habitat any further.
2. It should gradually do away with special water “rights” such as the Central Valley cheap water. Water costs should be more equally shared. 
3. Identify the current rights of various water districts. Compare those to other water districts and users. 
4. Ground water rights needs to be managed as are the riparian rights.   
5. What needs to be done to separate water rights from money? In other words people with money should have no more rights than the less fortunate or the State and Federal governments. 

That is where Theo and Ben ended their conversation. They were not going to solve the water problems that day...

The New Melones Dam was the last big dam built in California between 1976-79. It was controversial. Environmentalists would reside in the canyon of the Stanislaus River, the deepest limestone canyon in the country, in an attempt to save it. To no avail. In the winter of 1979 the rainfall was enough to fill up the whole canyon for the first time.  With the growing population, increasing industry, and increasing irrigation for cattle feed, this was another must-have project. The Army Corps of Engineers provided the final blow again. Unfortunately the water yield was lower than expected. Even in the wet 2017-18 year, when most of the reservoirs were at 75-90%, the New Melones was only at 30-50%. Most of the rainfall that year fell in Northern California, which the New Melones dam is not part of.   

“Well,” said Theo, “here we have another project, later labeled as: ‘a case study of all that can go wrong with a project’!”  

“Then what is the answer?” Ben asked. 

“Ironically, the whole idea of needing more dams went away, and even existing dams have been, and are, demolished so the salmon can travel freely between the spawning grounds and the sea instead of becoming chopped liver through the power plant pumps,” Theo surmised. 

“And, while the California population keeps expanding?” Ben asked.

“The population has been demanding an accounting of where water was going and increasingly realized that water was really cheap, courtesy of the California and American tax-payer.  If farmers would have to pay the full price, they would not grow tomatoes in the Central Valley, let alone irrigation of cattle feed, which is the most un-economical use of California water,” Theo replied.  

“That sounds like a similar development in the Netherlands,” Ben continued. “We used to see straight canals built, for the convenience of shipping routes. We would build pretty high dikes to keep the water funneled, and be able to expand industry and towns in the area around the canal. In years of extreme storms with high tides, especially during full moon, people around the canals got nervous, hoping the dikes would hold. Then around the end of the 1900’s, beginning of the 2000’s, water management philosophies changed. In places where there was a secondary dike, the main dike was broken, for the water to have an expanded area to flow into, like the Yolo Causeway, along the Sacramento River, in California. Along the big rivers, secondary dikes got reinforced and primary dikes broken for the same reason. In the winter these areas become excess water reservoirs. In the Spring and Summer it becomes grazing land for cows. In the East of Holland, rivers that had been ‘straightened out’, were allowed to meander in their prior river beds again, which allows for expansion of water flows and time for water to percolate back into the ground. This brought back wildlife, like fish and birds, plus plant species that had almost become extinct.”     

The experience of water management in California has not been all positive. Some critics have attributed California’s land, water, labor, and environmental problems to “immense centralized institutions” ruled by oppressive bureaucratic elites who have manipulated water resources in their own self-interest. There is some truth to that, but the reality of a war of fragmented authorities contradicts some of that.  “That is confusing,” Theo thought, as he was in the middle of the book: The Great Thirst (page 547). It reminded him of what Senator Wolk had been fighting for, in California. 

She submitted a law, or what she hoped would become law, limiting the drilling of new wells for irrigation. The ground water levels are going down at an alarming rate, especially in the Central Valley. Water consumption in California way outpaces the amount replenished through rainfall and snow, that melts in the Spring and is collected in reservoirs.  California water rights are still based on the old rule that groundwater is accessible to any grower, however deep he has to drill, limited only by economics. Surface water is something else. Only the land owner through whose property a river is flowing, has water rights to that water, as much as he needs. The governor can put limitations on surface water use, but not on ground water consumption for irrigation purposes. Theo had mixed feelings about that. He was fortunate to live in Northern California, where there was enough water for farming operations, but his farm friends in the Central Valley had to rely on a lot of well water. 

The law did not pass, because the Farm Bureau was able to put a stop to it. This was the same Farm Bureau that had been so helpful to Theo over the years.  This issue was going backwards on water consumption in California. There is no all-encompassing program on water consumption and water allocation in California. It is all these “immense centralized institutions” making it impossible to have a uniform water policy. What reasons did the Farm Bureau give for fighting the limits on new wells? They would not say, except give some vague response, like: “Who will grow food for the population, if water was not supplied in sufficient amounts?”  If the farmer had to pay the real price of water, they would not grow tomatoes, plant almond trees, and the like. That land would require other purposes. It reminded Theo about what happened in the Klamath Valley Basin.

The Klamath is the most important coastal river south of the Columbia River for anadromous fish migration. Its salmon, steelhead and rainbow trout have adapted to unusually high water temperatures and acidity levels relative to other rivers in the Pacific Northwest. The numerous fish were a major source of food for Native Americans, who have inhabited the basin for at least 7,000 years. The first Europeans to enter the Klamath River basin were fur trappers for the Hudson's Bay Company in the 1820s; they established the Siskiyou Trail along the Klamath and Trinity rivers into the Sacramento Valley. Within several decades of white settlement, native peoples were forced into reservations. Most human use of the watershed is limited to the upper basin. Despite the semiarid climate, dams have been built, irrigation water has been supplied from the Klamath and Lost rivers, and plentiful groundwater has been drawn to transform most of the upper Klamath Basin to farmland. At least 11,000 years ago, Lower Klamath and Tule Lakes in the rainy season would combine into one giant freshwater marsh that was nearly 290 square miles (750 km²) large. This, combined with the over 100 square miles (260 km²) of Upper Klamath Lake, formed a temporary habitat for millions of migratory birds.^[25][26] These lakes are all remnants of a large Ice Age lake, Lake Modoc, that covered about 1,100 square miles (2,800 km²). Although all of the marshlands have been developed with the exception of Upper Klamath Lake,^[27] about 3.7 million migrating birds still pass through the watershed each year. (Wikipedia)

The Valley Basin is a semi-arid section of Oregon, that receives relatively little water. Ground water was plentiful, at one time. Farmers, settling there, by the middle of the 20^th century were feeling the pressure of an increasing population, and industry needing more water. The area had been known for being the 2^nd largest salmon river after the Columbia.  For Indians the land also represented an ancient, sacred, and spiritual inheritance. It became clear that the natural flows would not be enough to satisfy all parties; farmers, Indians, industrialists, and growing population. About every 6-7 years or so, an extreme drought would make it really hard to allocate the water. Volatility between parties became understandable. Farmers succeeded to have the federal government build four power generating dams that helped light up the area, blocking the salmon from swimming up stream to lay their eggs and pumps churning up the fish that came back down the river. Feeder lakes were drained to make arable land. Later the power generators were not needed anymore, but the damage was done. Then in the mid-nineteen fifties, the federal government, as part of its efforts to assimilate the Indians, duped the tribes into selling off their land, leaving them without a home, overlooking one important provision in the 1864 treaty: It allowed tribes to hunt, fish and gather on their former lands. This included retaining their water rights, so the farmers found themselves as second in line. Beyond that, the “sucker fish” had to be protected which caused a lot of small farmers to go bankrupt. 

Theo could imagine the arguments and bad feelings that created among the Valley Basin constituents. You would have a pickup full of teenagers going through town, shouting obscenities at the Indians they encountered, derogatory comments, putting bullet holes through signs in front of businesses. At one point, during a drought, the President allowed the release of water to save the salmon, but it was too late. The water was too warm for salmon to survive. The government tried, but only provided temporary relief, and was too far removed to understand the battles and history of water provisions for Oregon and California. 

Enter Jim Root, a newcomer to the Medford based fruit export business. He bought a farm which had a river running through it, so had one of the oldest water rights available. But that did not exclude him from seeing the water wars and pain around him. He had more water than he needed. The water spread out over his pasture land, was not the most economical use.  Jim’s conscience played a role in deciding to not irrigate for pasture anymore. This provided people downstream access to more water. His decision did not go unnoticed by the Indians, and he gained their respect. Not only the tribe, but also his neighbor, a rancher noticed it and soon the two became friends. They both saw how big the problem of the water shut-off was and they tried to figure out a way to solve it. Thomas, the neighbor, had a good standing with the ranchers and Jim had the respect of the tribe. 

Jim had attended a Rotary International Convention which had generated discussion to attempt to end the Falkland Island war between Britain and Argentina. Jim was intrigued in the way the dialogue was moderated. Rotarians from both sides, listened to each other and talked to their respective governments, which contributed to ending that war. Jim was impressed! It was seventeen years after that convention that Jim Root found himself in the above described situation. He wanted to give all sides an opportunity to speak, in a safe place. No editors with paper and pencil or cameras! He knew the importance of sharing a meal, where it was a lot more than just eating. When the tribal representatives arrived they suggested an age old plan of putting the tables in a circle, so all would be facing each other. It was their first break-through. Remembering some simple points that were put up at that Rotary intervention report, seventeen years earlier, he put up four bullet points: 

1. Develop trust.
2. Actions that consider the entire community.
3. Balance the flow of water in- and out- of the community.    
4. Improve water quality considering: “good ecology equals good economy.” 

Jim would ask for facts, and wrote those down for everyone to see. The initial goal was to meet from 8-noon, but by lunch time there was so much energy in the room, that he decided to have the place serve up some sandwiches and salad, so they could continue for awhile. “Awhile” ended up to be a full eight-hour meeting! The meetings became a weekly event. People felt free to get up and take a stretch, there would be rest periods when informal conversations would take place. Even if someone had to vent, they vented, that was ok. There were local events, like the potato festival, where the tribe offered to cook the salmon. The ultimate was this question posed by a farmer’s wife:

“What would it mean,” she asked the then Klamath Chairman foreman, “if somebody just said they were sorry?”

Ben drove up, and saw Theo inspecting his tomato field. It was the second planting, which they had just been finished thinning, and about ready of another irrigation. The plants were big enough now, to where Theo did not sprinkle anymore, but ran water in every other grove between the beds. It was the end of March and they had just a sprinkle of rain, which did not amount to anything.

 “Well,” said Theo, “global warming is making itself known; we didn’t have much rain this season.”   

“Really,” Ben replied, “and what is the definition of global warming?” 

“That includes a lot of things. The way the ice caps are melting, sea levels are slightly but continuously rising, and what we humans add to the equation from our pollution, like CO2 and other greenhouse gasses.”

“Oh,” Ben replied, “you mean the melting of the ice caps and current increase of the oceans is due to us polluting?” 

“Listen to this, Theo replied: Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”  

“Oh yea, that is based on computer models in which the more recent and more sophisticated data is extrapolated over hundreds or even thousands of years prior! I’m not saying that global warming is not taking place. The Dutch are very aware of it as they see the sea level inching up and the below-sea-level ground sinking, just as is happening in the Central Valley. They are getting scared of having to raise the dikes all the way around,” Ben responded all in one breath. He went on: “here in the USA, global warming, also called climate change, I believe, is so heavily impregnated with CO2 expulsion created by carbon discharge of the use of carbon fuels and greenhouse gasses, emitted by humans. If we control all of that better, that would reduce global warming and the Dutch would not have to worry so much about having to raise the dikes.” 

“So,” Theo replied:  “is it not better to reduce our pollution?” 

“Of course we should control our pollution, but not with the expectation global warming will be controlled,” Ben replied, and went on: “We are sterilizing the earth, reducing the bee population, redirecting water, so Los Angeles can grow bigger, and much natural life gets killed off. For the most part we currently don’t even know we are doing that. Aren’t we learning anything from history?” 

Ben went on to explain that “global warming,” in Holland and much of Europe has an entirely different meaning than in the USA. “In Europe, global warming is seen much more like a long-term process from ice-age to ice-age, which takes place over a much longer period than from the time the first automobile was produced until now. I’ve seen Los Angeles with brown polluted skies during the 1970’s-1990’s. But that has to change through stricter car and industry air pollution legislation. Of course we need to control pollution better, but that is an entirely different story than global warming.”  

“Got to go, we’ll continue this conversation later,” said Theo as he got in his pickup to go and prepare for the next irrigation.

 So I started NaNoWrimo, this November 2016. The first day was great. Almost got my 1667 words for the day. The next day got another 500 or so words in. Then, about November 8 I went dry, but let me backtrack. I am pretty good at setting parameters, the historical setting, and what I call, the technical components of my book: A Drop in the Bucket. The parameters are the timeframes, theme, and locations. The timeframes are dictated by the locations and the theme. The theme is water and how it is used in different cultures. The timeframes are determined by what is happening at the various locations. The technical components are what I use in the various locations, and concerns mostly in agriculture, water engineering, floods, precipitation or the lack thereof.

California started out as a Spanish colony. Spanish law permeated the area; California, Mexico, and all Spanish colonies. Spain developed laws over its history, including those pertaining to water. Spain is a semi-arid country, where water is at a shortage, many years. The main philosophy has always been that all residents shared the royal patrimony in common. “We have ordered that the pastures, woods, and waters be common to the Indies,” proclaimed the monarch in 1541 in a decree reaffirming an even earlier pronouncement, “… and the foregoing shall be enforced where no title or grant of ours orders differently.” To the missions of California, grants of land and water were strictly temporary. Title remained with the crown and missionaries as trustees for the Indians. Civil pueblos  had title to approximately 27 square miles, which became permanent if the residents met certain prescribed requirements, but they could not obtain title to water. Under Spanish law, water in a municipality did not belong to separate individuals, but was passed on from the monarch to the entire community. “Pastures, woods, waters, hunting, fishing, stone quarries, fruit trees, and other privileges shall be for the common benefit of the Spaniards and Indians residing therein.     (Source: The great Thirst, by Norris Hundley Jr.)

When there was a limit of water, Spanish legalisms took on great significance.  Water remained under rule of the Spanish crown. 

Moving forward to 1846, when California was taken over by the USA and two years later gold was found, just outside of Sacramento. The whole philosophy changed. People came in hordes to go for the gold. Those were all free-thinking people, wary of Washington government intervention. They wanted local control, somewhat similar to the Spanish law which acknowledged that land use should be controlled locally as much as possible. But to the new locals that included water rights. Gold diggers need water, but soon water was becoming limited in California, like it always had been in Spain. What about newcomers, who would prospect between you and the water source?  The law did not really address that yet. Soon the locals created their own law: First in time, first in right. That became law, and to this day people in California defend that position. That is why we see two farms side by side; one lush with fruit trees, row crops and big barns, while their neighbor barely gets by with dry farming. One inherited water rights, his neighbor was not as fortunate. 

Blacksmithing may not interest you, but the underlying focus on craftsmanship is what attracts you. The blacksmith focusses on his work, hammers where it is needed, re-heats the iron to make it more plyable. You are fascinated by the work that goes into it.

Economics has fascinated me for some time. I even started a blog on it, until I came to the conclusion that there are hundreds of blogs about economics. I started to focus more on "water", driven by the drought I encountered, upon return to California in 2009. But just writing about the drought, or "water" in California was also a subject that was overdone, and only of interest to Californians. Other states in the country heard about the drought, but could not grasp its intensity. Even in California people felt it was not that bad and could be legislated out of existence, if the government would get their act together. 

The waterway from the harbor of Rotterdam to the North Sea. Rotterdam used to be world's largest port for many years.

I like the big picture, so decided to incorporate economics, politics, geography, history, and culture into the equation. But to what could I compare it? The first thing that came to mind was how water is managed in Holland (the Netherlands). First there was the Afsluitdijk, a dike built across the Zuider Sea in 1932, making it a lake. Then we had the big flood in 1953 and how after that plans were solidified more quickly to protect the country from it happening again. Then there was hurricane Katrina in the Mississippi delta in 2005, just as Holland is a delta. My brother, who was a water engineer, put projects together in Bangladesh, which is a humongous delta where the snow melt from the Himalayas streams into the ocean.

So here is how my story is developing now: 

Theo migrated to Missouri with his family. His dad started a dairy farm in the early to mid 1800's. Theo is the oldest son who would be expected to take over the farm, but is not so inclined. He will move to California, following the gold-rush crowd. Not so much to dig for gold, but to get involved in the politics of water management. His grandson will meet Ben, who immigrated from Holland with his new bride. Ben is also interested in water and the two get together to share notes about water management in California vs. Holland. Ben's brother, Rudolf, visits his brother in California, but is also interested in the ramifications of hurricane Katrina, being a water engineer himself and having worked on rebuilding the dike systems in Holland after the 1953 flood. His company sent him out to Bangladesh to engineer water projects there. He also was sent out to Israel to maintain and raise the levees around the Dead Sea for potassium winning. 

Fascination comes into play, to see how different politics plays out in each of those developments, and how the geography and economics play a role in each. It will become a novel for which I need to develop personal challenges for my characters, yet. 

WHAT IS YOUR DREAM? HOW ARE YOU DEVELOPING THAT DREAM? 

TO GET STARTED, YOU NEED TO MOVE INTO ACTION FIRST. HAVING WRITTEN SEVERAL BLOGS AND POTENTIAL CHAPTERS GOT ME TO THIS POINT. MAYBE FOR YOU IT ISN'T WRITING BUT SOMETHING ENTIRELY DIFFERENT, YET THE PROCESS IS THE SAME. 

   Move into action. The note-taking, list making, and research has to end at some point. Your plot comes one of two ways: from outlining or from diving directly into the writing and engaging in a process of discovery. Either way, you’ve got to start getting words onto the page.

Are you an Outliner or a Pantser?

You know what an Outliner is. Pantsers are the opposite. They write by the seat of their pants, by process of discovery. Like Stephen King, they try to put interesting characters in difficult situations and write to find out what happens.

Let the fun begin with whichever style fits you best. It may take some experimenting, but most novelists are one or the other. Neither is right or wrong, and whichever one you are, at times the other seems preferable. But pick one and run with it.

Outliners carefully map out the story before they write the first word, sometimes even developing a detailed plan for each scene. They find they can’t write a novel any other way.

Dostoyevsky wrote eight outlines of The Idiot, changing his conception of the story dramatically each time. Henry James wrote detailed scenarios of his novels before he began his first drafts; his scenario for The Ambassadors ran 20,000 words.

Pantsers believe that if they can be surprised, delighted, disappointed, horrified, or moved in the course of writing, the reader will be too. I happen to be a Pantser. author: Jerry Jenkins

I have referred to "Outliners" and "Pantsers" before. The above quote is from Jerry Jenkins Fiction Jumpstart course.

These are the basic two forms a writer uses, depending on his / her personality. I think I am also a "Pantser". My characters develop as I write, and as I "need" them to make a flowing story. Theo's personality comes from the Dutch book Soldaat van Oranje's main character. When I wrote my first book, my memoirs, I used more of an outline writing it in chronological order. 

Let me ask you again:

WHAT IS YOUR DREAM? WHERE ARE YOU WITH YOUR RESEARCH ON MAKING IT HAPPEN?

All white area would have been sea without dikes

Onze Groote Rivieren, by Dr. Jac. P. Thijsse. What does that mean? Only a Dutchman (or woman) would understand. A Dutchman, younger than, say 25 years, may not know the whole story of what it means, but will understand the title of the book, at least. 

We all know the story of Joshua leading the Israelites into the promised land, but were stopped at the turbulent Jordan River. God promised for them to make it into the promised land and commanded Joshua to step into the river. Just imagine: Joshua and some others stuck their toes into the water. Nothing happened. Then they went ankle deep. Still nothing happened. They got to their waist and could not really go further without the risk of being swept away. Then the water started to build upstream, so they kept on walking. By now the rest of the Israelites were probably reluctantly following, as the water dammed up all the way. 

1. I needed a name. I wanted him to live around 1800 in order to make him a character going to California during the gold rush. So I Googled names used in the 1800’s.  
2. I needed for him to live somewhere. I chose Missouri, since that was from where the gold rush trek started, and decided to put him in a farm setting. 
3. I listened to Jerry Jenkins podcast interview with Brandilyn Collins. Brandilyn compared creating fiction characters with those created in theatre setings. She gave some great examples of how to develop realistic characters. 
4. Then I started writing: putting my toes in the water… 
5. Several other characters emerged: Theo had two brothers and at least a sister, so they too needed a name. Those, or some of them, might develop yet as well in my story. I also need to check out what crops were planted at that time, the economy, and how water was used in Missouri.

What is your next step ... to put your toe in the water?

THEO

Soldaat van Oranje is a play going on its six’s year. Go figure: 2-3 shows a week 50 weeks a year and still sold out after 5 years straight! Only if you know Dutch can you understand it fully. Otherwise maybe 50%? The theatre is located in a hangar on an air force base. The theater seats about 2,500 people. The audience sits on a big platform that turns toward the following scene. Sometimes the platform turns a full 360 before settling onto the next scene to emphasize drama.

“If not us, then who?” 

How about you? What are you excited about? What is driving you?

How did something that made an impression on you, as did Soldaat van Oranje for me, affect your progress? 

When the Americans came to town, the first thing they noticed was the lack of kids being in school, especially girls. They figured kids needed an education in order to get ahead in their future. This was in Pakistan, but also in Niger and Zambia Americans saw the same thing. They tried to raise support in America so schools could be built in Pakistan, Niger, Zambia and many other places, especially on the African continent. They built the schools but many girls would not come to school. Or they would come to overcrowded classes and not really learn anything, so their parents took them out. They were far more productive helping on the farm. 

Folsom Lake

The Sacramento area got almost 4” of rain in the foothills on this February day in 2016! That happens more often, but this time it was so welcome because California has been in a drought for 5 years. The news media have been telling us that we need to conserve water. Governor Brown even demanded a 25% reduction every month based on the 2013 water use, so the media duty fully reported the actual reductions each month. For the month of February (2016) it was 24.6 %, just below the required 25%.

“But who cared, we were getting some rain and snow now so we can cheat a little, right?” Ben thought.

 As Ben was watching the news with his friend Paul, it showed the huge Folsom Dam with water spilling over two of the spillways and the newscaster saying two more spillways would be opened later that day.

 “How can they do that?” Paul fumed.  “Here we are in the drought, and they are wasting all that water. What are they thinking?”

 The newscaster was prepared for that question and resumed:“ We have people calling in asking why they are releasing so much water in this drought season; we’re only at 83% of average precipitation!”  He went on: “Folsom Lake is filling up fast and if we don’t release water now there will be no room left for the snow melt come this spring.”  It takes 10x more time to release the same amount of water, than it takes to fill Folsom Lake with a couple of 3-4” rainfalls. 

“How could Lake Folsom fill up so fast with an average of 83% precipitation to-date, when only a few months ago the lake was literally just about empty?” Ben thought. “If the lake fills up this fast, and we got very little snow and rain in February, we are way short of storage capacity!” Ben couldn’t believe he said that, because a week ago he was still thinking: Just because the lakes are filling up does not mean we are out of the woods yet, concerning the drought.

 “Didn’t we read just a few weeks ago that even if we got 100% of the required precipitation, California would still be short because there are aquafers to be replenished yet?” Paul lamented.  “How did we do it before this drought season? They must have been releasing at least as much water, then.”

 “Then nobody worried about not having enough water after the winter,” Ben replied.

 Ben changed his mind and believes we actually are behind in building dams.  Before, he thought that more dams wouldn’t make any difference; that all it would do is increase our consumption and there never would be enough water in California anyway. Now he realizes that those reservoirs fill up so fast that a few more will be very helpful. 

Ben’s son recently told him that the release program of water is based on outdated information. That information was valid years ago when there was plenty of rainfall and more water had to be released to make room for snow run-off. Now that we use more water, the program has to be updated, but that will become a story for another time.

It’s all just a drop in the Bucket.